Last November a conference was held in Rimini, Italy called “The Soul of Empire - the troubled horizons of oil - sustainability or apocalypse soon?” . The conference was a high level event, with presentations from the EU, the UN, the International Energy Agency and the Gorbachev Foundation amongst others.

The conference theme began…

“Three decisive challenges for planet Earth loom on the horizon and
condition the prospective paths of world development: satisfying the
world’s need for energy which is cheap and cleaner in its processes, products and systems of use; secondly, accelerated economic growth on the part of the economically less developed countries within a framework of democratic freedoms and the self-determination of peoples; thirdly, environmental sustainability as an eco-efficiency value of nation systems. Oil is not only a resource but a political and economic instrument that is in effect the Soul of the Empire, conditioning geopolitical choices, determining equilibria and generating conflicts. It will continue to be the critical factor in international relations: if in the next decade world production of crude oil should reach its peak, industrial development would face serious challenges.” full text

All shades of opinion were represented, from Daniel Yergin, CEO of CERA (the market leading oil industry research company) who sees no problem with ‘business as usual,’ to Colin Campbell, founder of the Association for the Study of Peak Oil. But perhaps the most significant contribution, was the peakist postion taken by James Schlesinger, ex-CIA head and secretary of defence during the OPEC oil embargo of 1973.

As Jeremy Leggett, chief scientist at Greenpeace, reported:
http://www.guardian.co.uk/oil/story/0,11319,1636920,00.html

“History shows that James Schlesinger, a former director of the CIA, is not a man to mess with. As secretary of defence during the first oil shock in 1973, he threatened to invade the Arabian peninsula if the Saudis didn’t reopen the oil pumps they had shut down in ire over the October war, thus precipitating the crisis.

In an interesting contrast with the US’s current professed intentions in Iraq, Mr Schlesinger was on record then as saying: “Militarily we could have seized one of the Arab states. And the plan did indeed scare and anger them. No, it wasn’t just bravado. It was clearly intended as a warning. I think the Arabs were quite worried about it after 73″.

So it was with some surprise that participants in…in Rimini heard Mr Schlesinger give a speech warning of a grave threat to the world economy from a coming peak in oil production.

Addressing a select audience that included oil ministers and senior officials from the oil cartel Opec, the energy watchdog International Energy Agency, and the UN, plus advocates of a premature oil peak such as the former British cabinet minister Michael Meacher, Mr Schlesinger offered a graphic analogy.

The peak-oil threat and the response to it are reminiscent, he said, of the rumbles under Vesuvius and the reaction to them of its hapless residents.

“The peak or plateau is coming,” he said

His message was clear: economic horror will descend on the world if we do not plan ahead, and the time to start is now. We are asleep at the wheel, like the citizens of Pompeii and Herculaneum were, looking up at their volcano and thinking that its dormant state would be destiny. They ignored the rumbles, and ended up buried under ten metres of ash.

Mr Schlesinger threw a barb at the detractors he knew would follow him at the podium. Most people, and all governments, are in denial, he intimated.

“Every time someone says the peak is far off, there is an audible sigh of relief.”

He cited Daniel Yergin, the chairman of the influential oil industry consultancy Cambridge Energy Research Associates.

“When Daniel Yergin said the peak wouldn’t be until 2020 in a recent report, it was greeted with elation” .”

Dr. Colin Campbell (Founder of the Association for the Study of Peak Oil  along with fellow advocates like former Environment Secretary Michael Meacher, had been led to believe the main feature of the summit was to be the launch of the Oil Depletion Protocol - a proposed international protocol developed by the ASPO to mitigate the crisis of oil depletion. Indeed, the organisers told him that Mikhail Gorbachev was due to launch the protocol in a plenary speech. In the event Mr Gorbachev didn’t show up and Campbell and the Protocol were sidelined.

Despite Schlesinger, the peakist postion was sidelined - or was it spiked? The short term interests of the oil industry and the short term thinking of serving politicians certainly won out: “business as usual” prevailed.