Howard Kunstler wrote ‘The Long Emergency’ on the premise that in the near future our lives will change dramatically due to a confluence point of simultaineous global problems. The primary issue here being peak oil. A secondary issue he touched on was climate change, to which many are attributing this summer’s uncharacteristic weather patterns.

I believe this is the first micro effects of a confluence of problems that will directly effect the standards of living in the western world.
” In the 40 years between 1950 and 1992, the area of planted arable land increased by 14.5 per cent from 611 million hectares to 700 million hectares; in the same period, grain output rose from 692 million tons to a staggering 1,920 million tons, an increase of 177.5 per cent…….. The ability of agriculture to produce far greater quantities food this century than in previous centuries can be attributed to four factors: advanced plant breeding techniques, the use of intensive irrigation, the availability of fertilizers on a commercial scale, and the development of plant protection products. Applied together, these four technologies have produced a remarkable outcome: although there has been an enormous increase in world population during the twentieth century, and although there are still parts of the world where people are suffering from malnutrition, nowadays, starvation is no longer a common cause of death, as it was in the last century. Nevertheless, because the population of the world continues to rise, 680 million people - or 12 per cent of the world’s population - could be chronically undernourished by 2010, according to FAO projections. This means that the demands on agriculture to be both productive and sustainable are increasing. ” source EFMA

Industrial agriculture of this kind is sustained by two fossil fuel factors. Firstly the machinary required to allow farming on this scale is built and maintained by methods that require indirect and direct consumption of fossil fuels. Secondly the fertizilers used in industrial agriculture are based on petro chemical processes like the Haber-Bosch process, “The process uses high temperatures and high pressures to combine hydrogen and nitrogen from the air in order to mass produce ammonia, which is a main ingredient in fertilizer. Today, it is estimated that the Haber-Bosch process is used to produce more than 500 million tons of fertilizer that is responsible for sustaining 40% of the earth’s population. On the flip-side, much of the nitrogen used in the process ends up back in the environment as a major source of pollution.” source The Earth Institute

The actual cost of farming is in a potential pincher of escalating fossil fuel based costs and more importantly 40% of the earths food supply is directly tied to fertilizer’s based on fossil fuels. So the supply / cost of food is directly tied to the supply / cost of cheap gas. This is not taking into account the amount of energy required in the Haber-Bosch process “1% of the world’s annual energy supply is consumed in the Haber process.” source SCIENCE.

The current weather conditions are having a significant effect on one of the stable food products of the UK, the Potato “Despite further rain storms in most regions harvest progress increased last week with an estimated 850 ha cleared compared with 490 ha the previous week. However, soil and lifting conditions remain difficult but are slightly improved from last week in many Eastern regions, although North Lincolnshire remains very wet. Yields continue to increase in the warm wet weather and are estimated to average 35 t/ha compared with 29 t/ha last year. Levels of Blight, waterlogging, wind damage, low tuber numbers, wet rots, greening and growth cracking are increasing with even some hailstone damage reported to crops in the South East. The overall affect on crops is still uncertain and will become clearer as the season progresses.“ source 2007 CROP UPDATE British Potato Council

At this stage the full effects of the bad weather are unknown. There has been an increase in yeild but there are severe problems with harvesting, disease and weather damage. One thing is certain however if the wet weather continues it will wash nuitriants from the soil and will result in compounding the current problems. However cost is being affected. The table below lists the increase in cost per tonne in the first quarter of 2007. From week 1 to week 13 this amounts as an increase in £21.1 per tonne.

2007 Q1 Wk 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13
£/t ex farm 138.7 135.6 137.0 138.2 136.2 137.2 139.1 137.6 149.1 151.9 158.1 154.5 159.9 Source FWI

The conclusion being the era of cheap fuel coming to an end means the end of the mass production of cheap food. This combined with unpredictable weather patterns means a possible future of uncertain and expensive food supply and a return to the food production levels of pre 1950. If this is the case its feasible the poorest people in the developing world will suffer an famine conditions of massive proportions in the very near future, and no well meaning rock concert will be of any comfort to them.