The Peakist

The Observer ran an excellent piece on the detriorating security situation in the Niger Delta, placing the conflict between the Ijaw MEND movement, the Nigerian state and the oil companies firmly in the context of world depletion. A fascinating element of the movement is how magic charm wearing rebel fighters are linked by the mobile phone network to internet activists - a rebel army in one of the poorest parts of the world fronted by a mysterious online entity. If the journalists contacts are to be believed the rebels are preparing a full scale shut down of Niger Delta’s oil exports. Once again the world economy is ransomed by a handfull of committed, armed men.

“For decades, the oil-rich delta of the Niger river has been plundered by western companies and rampant political corruption. But now a small group of ruthless Ijaw tribesmen are threatening to sabotage production unless their demands for compensation are met. Sebastian Junger heads into the secretive mangrove swamps to meet the waterborne warriors who are prepared to trigger a global meltdown
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Nafeez Mosaddeq Ahmed writes: In a little-noted article printed in early August in the Armed Forces Journal, a monthly magazine for officers and leaders in the United States military community, early retired Major Ralph Peters sets out the latest ideas in current US strategic thinking. And they are extremely disturbing.

Ethnically Cleansing the Entire Middle East

Maj. Peters, formerly assigned to the Office of the Deputy Chief of Staff for Intelligence where he was responsible for future warfare, candidly outlines how the map of the Middle East should be fundamentally re-drawn, in a new imperial endeavor designed to correct past errors. “Without such major boundary revisions, we shall never see a more peaceful Middle East,” he observes, but then adds wryly: “Oh, and one other dirty little secret from 5,000 years of history: Ethnic cleansing works.” (more…)

BP is keen to accentuate its eco-friendly ambitions. But critics doubt how seriously the company is committed to cleaning up its act, writes Peter Huck in The Guardian

Over the last decade, BP, the world’s second largest oil company, has burnished its green credentials. In 1996, the company withdrew from the Global Climate Coalition, the global warming “deniers” backed by the oil industry. In 2000, it rebranded itself as an energy company, Beyond Petroleum, stressing its commitment to environmentalism. And last year the company said it would spend $8bn (£4.2bn) on solar, wind and hydrogen energy over 10 years. “No one should be able to use the environment without restoring it,” the company’s group chief executive officer, Lord (John) Browne, solemnly told Vanity Fair in May.

But does BP have a dark side? Earlier this month, the company sent shock waves through world markets when it halted production at Prudhoe Bay, America’s biggest oilfield on Alaska’s North Slope. The field closed after BP found severe corrosion inside 16 miles of “transit lines”, which help feed crude from 2,200 oil wells into the Trans-Alaska Pipeline. Production has since resumed in Prudhoe Bay’s western section. (more…)

Richard Heinberg writes: There is considerable danger that the smoke and fire from these three geographic flashpoints—Iraq, Iran, and Lebanon—could converge in a larger regional conflagration. In light of all this potential for apocalyptic mayhem, a discussion of the oil business may seem almost frivolous. But it is important to remember that, historically, the drawing of borders in the Middle East; the establishment of British, French, and later US-backed puppet governments in these faux nations; and the rise of a radical Islamic fundamentalist movement to challenge the Western-backed regimes, have all been fueled by the wealth produced by oil, and by the need for oil on the part of importing countries.

For decades there was a petroleum status quo of sorts in the Middle East: the capacity for production exceeded demand, and OPEC worked to restrain exports in order to keep prices from collapsing; meanwhile big producers like Saudi Arabia served as the world’s petroleum bankers, maintaining the solvency of the system. On only one occasion—the embargo of 1973-74—did the swing producers withhold needed oil flows for political reasons, or cause prices to reach levels unacceptable to consumers (the other major post-1970 oil shocks, due to wars or revolutions, were beyond OPEC’s control).

Now the status quo is crumbling—not so much for political reasons (though those are certainly imaginable, given the situations outlined above), but for reasons of geology. (more…)

Earlier this month, the Guardian published a piece by Hugo Chavez in which he argued: “If the entire world adopts the energy-consumption patterns and lifestyles of the developed countries, we’re heading for disaster.” Coming from a leader whose ‘Bolivarian’ revolution is bankrolled by petrodollars this strikes me as a significant statement. Events in the Middle East have focussed attention away from the significance of Venezuela to the emergent energy geo-politics. The Chavez regime is more than happy to supply oil to its left wing Latin American allies at subsidised prices, and with no end of high oil prices in sight there is noreason why they won’t continue to do so. Chavez survived a CIA backed coup attempt in 2002 and is in the process of investing in Russian armaments to defend Venezuela against future military intervnetion from the US. As many commentators have pointed out whilst the Bush junta has been caught up in its failed war in Eurasia anti-hegemonic forces have been taking over the US’ backyard. As oil supplies become ever tighter and with the catastrophic loss of Middle Eastern supplies (whether Iranian or Saudi) a very real possibility there can be little doubt that practitioners of real politique in Washington will be looking for control of supplies closer to home. Under the rubric of the ‘war on terror’ US military aid is already committed to defending Columbian oil from left wing guerillas. It is easy to forget that US military presence in the ‘Centcom’ region of the Gulf states and central asaia involves incredibaly costly, long and vulnerable supply lines. Projection of force to control hydrocarbons in the Western hemisphere looks like a good deal by comparison. Whether Chavez can put his environmental rhetoric into action remians to be seen; that, for now, Venezuela is the central obstacle to US hegemony in the Western hemisphere is without doubt.

Drawbridge quarterly magazine

Oil ShockWave is a scenario exercise developed by Securing America’s Future Energy (SAFE) and the National Commission on Energy Policy. In this half-day exercise, top former government officials take part in a series of Principals meetings of the Cabinet over a seven-month period in order to advise the President on how to respond to a series of events that affect world oil supplies.

In 2005 a simulation was run where 3.5 million barrels of oil were suddenly removed from a global market of more than 83 million barrels. The simulation showed the US losing 2m jobs, the largest drop since 1945. (more…)

Over the past two weeks, Saudi Arabian security authorities have conducted a series of raids across the country, including in the capital Riyadh and the cities of Mecca and Medina.

On March 29, a total of 40 suspected members of al-Qaeda were picked up in simultaneous arrests, almost half of these suspected of financially aiding terrorist attacks and propagating jihadist ideology materials online. (more…)