The Peakist

That’s a pretty stark warning from the IEA. And begs the question whether OPEC can increase production by 4.9 million barrels over the next five years. There’s supposedly
3.5-4 mbd spare capacity in Gawar, but as posted in February, a Saudi Aramco spokesman admitted last year that its mature fields are now declining at a rate of 8 percent
per year,a decline 50% of production in about 9 years time. This all puts enormous significance on the un-exploited Iraqi reserves. This again makes me ponder the question upon which, without exageration, the future of mankind depends - will the oil supply crunch have a positive effect of constraining global carbon emissions? Potentially, high oil costs put a brake on economic growth and encourage energy efficiency gains while high energy costs more generally make renewables economic. Two key factors working against this are of course that the high cost of conventional oil makes economic the production of carbon intensive unconvential oil (whether tar sands or coal liquefaction) and bio-deisel (which, unless there is substantial control on the use of palm oil and soya as feedstocks will lead to a huge increase in rain forest destruction in S.E Asia and South America Respectively). Would the reduced emissions resulting from decreased consumption be out weighed by the consequence of economic stagnation - namely, a failure to invest in low carbon technologies? I’m reminded that the only Kyoto signatories that “achieved” substantail cuts in carbon emissions was Russia during the collapse of its industiral base.

These issue make two campaigns all the more important : (more…)

The Independent again showed the lead with peak oil last week with a front page response to the publication of BP’s Statistical Review of World Energy from Oil Depletion Analysis Centre (ODAC). ODAC’s response also got inside cover column inches in the Telegraph. BP’s Statistical Review comes hot on the heals on OPEC’s threat that it was considering cutting its investment in new oil production in response to moves by the developed world to use more biofuels. (more…)

China is moving rapidly on the front of bioenergy, with important targets for green energy included in the People’s Republic’s new Five-Year-Plan. The Chinese government also sees investments in the sector as a way to boost the rural economy and to ease the growing social inequalities between wealthy urbanites and poor farmers . Small farmers are already beginning to reap some of the benefits of China’s transition to biofuels. Thanks to a path-breaking effort to develop fuels and energy from woody and oil bearing crops, the country has announced it will now plant biomass and biofuel forests on a very large scale to fuel its future. By 2010, China plans to develop an area the size of England, or 13 million hectares, with Jatropha curcas trees from which both liquid and solid biofuels can be extracted as a source of clean energy, according to the State Forestry Administration (SFA). (more…)

For every calorie of food produced by agriculture, 10 calories of fossil fuel is burned. And today Bush announces the intention to cut US petroleum consumption by 20% in ten years - mainly through substituting corn-derived ethanol. The corn required to fill an SUV tank with bioethanol just once could feed one person for an entire year. Lester Brown has described the boom in bioethanol as a competition between the 800 million people in the world who own cars with the 3 billion people who struggle to feed themselves on less than $2 a day. This year’s Soil Association conference is on the theme of “Preparing for a post-peak oil food and farming future,” with keynote speakers from the peak oil fraternity, Colin Campbell, Richard Heinberg, Jeremy Leggett and Rob Hopkins. Jonathon Porritt, no less, (another speaker) had an piece in the Guardian today bylined “Declining oil reserves will impact hugely on energy prices and the way we eat and farm.” He points out that the idea that the UK might be forced back on predominantly its own productive resources is dismissed as “retro-protectionist rambling.” I predict the term “deglobalisation” will mainstream in the not too distant future. Let’s hope this comes about through reasoned response to the unfolding crisis rather than in shocked post-hoc analyses following a successful attack of the Saudi Abqaiq facility or a tanker in the Straits of Malacca. Jonathon Porritt’s article… (more…)

In the 2006 budget the UK Government introduced the Renewable Transport Fuels Obligation (RTFO)- a requirement on transport fuel suppliers to ensure that, by 2010 5% of all road vehicle fuel is supplied from renewable sources, bringing the UK roughly in line with the 2003 EU biofuels directive. In the US, with federal subsidies for bioethanol production, and in the EU with targets to be met, biofuels are big business. A recent study by the Worldwatch Institute concluded that, for Europe to provide for 5% of its transport fuel needs, a wholly unrealistic 36% of its agricultural land would have to be dedicated to biofuels. While currently British Sugar supplies much of the feedstock for UK biofuels, most of it blended with supermarket forecourt petrol, there is no way to meet the modest 2010 biofuel target utilising crops from European land. Instead the targets will be met with imports of biodeisel and ethanol - both of which currently present huge enviornmental problems and to greater or lesser extent displace the CO2 emissions that are the raison d’etre of the RTFO from European tailpipes to the US grain belt and Indonesian palm oil plantations.

Sasha Lilley reports for CorpWatch on the reality of the “green fuel” ethanol:

“The town of Columbus, Nebraska, bills itself as a “City of Power and Progress.” If Archer Daniels Midland gets its way, that power will be partially generated by coal, one of the dirtiest forms of energy. When burned, it emits carcinogenic pollutants and high levels of the greenhouse gases linked to global warming. Ironically this coal will be used to generate ethanol, a plant-based petroleum substitute that has been hyped by both environmentalists and President George Bush as the green fuel of the future. (more…)

AFP, 17 September 2006 - Despite forecasts that show no end to rising demand for crude over the coming decades, oil-producing nations are casting an uneasy eye on the growing number of measures being taken to tackle climate change.

“The main long term challenge is definitely the necessity to reconcile oil with environmental demands,” Claude Mandil, executive director of the International Energy Agency, told a recent conference organised by OPEC to examine the industry’s future.
Mandil also hinted that the 11 Middle Eastern, African and Asian nations in the Organisation of Petroleum Exporting Countries could not afford to ignore concerns about climate change, which are even winning over once sceptical consuming nations. (more…)

Dozens of factories that turn corn into the gasoline substitute ethanol are sprouting up across the US, often in places hundreds of miles away from where corn is grown, the New York times reports:

“Once considered the green dream of the environmentally sensitive, ethanol has become the province of agricultural giants that have long pressed for its use as fuel, as well as newcomers seeking to cash in on a bonanza. The modern-day gold rush is driven by a number of factors: generous government subsidies, surging demand for ethanol as a gasoline supplement, a potent blend of farm-state politics and the prospect of generating more than a 100 percent profit in less than two years. The rush is taking place despite concerns that large-scale diversion of agricultural resources to fuel could result in price increases for food for people and livestock, as well as the transformation of vast preserved areas into farmland. (more…)

Biofuels such as ethanol and biodiesel can significantly reduce global dependence on oil, according to a new report by the Worldwatch Institute, released in collaboration with the German Agencies for Technical Cooperation (GTZ) and Renewable Resources (FNR).

Last year, world biofuel production surpassed 670,000 barrels per day, the equivalent of about 1 percent of the global transport fuel market. Although oil still accounts for more than 96 percent of transport fuel use, biofuel production has doubled since 2001 and is poised for even stronger growth as the industry responds to higher fuel prices and supportive government policies. “Coordinated action to expand biofuel markets and advance new technologies could relieve pressure on oil prices while strengthening agricultural economies and reducing climate-altering emissions,” says Worldwatch Institute President Christopher Flavin. (more…)

BP promised yesterday to spend $500m (£285m) establishing a dedicated energy laboratory aimed at using the emerging knowledge from bioscience to find greener car fuels. The company hopes the study of living organisms will also provide ways of improving the recovery of oil, as well as opening up more opportunities for coal bed methane and carbon sequestration.

Lord Browne, chief executive, said he had started talks with leading universities in Britain and the US that could host what will be known as the BP Energy Biosciences Institute. “The world needs new technologies to maintain adequate supplies of energy for the future. Bioscience is already transforming modern medicine and we believe it can bring immense benefits to the energy sector,” he said.

The initiative was given a muted welcome by environmental campaign group Greenpeace, which said there were wider worries about biofuels and land use. Doug Parr, chief scientist, said: “This is good but it’s not in itself any kind of answer. BP can’t do everything on its own. It’s up to governments and legislators. Biofuels can compete for land use against biomass and cause deforestation in areas like Brazil.” Source

In recent weeks we have read about and anguished over the devastation in the United States. These natural disasters have also reminded us how vulnerable we are to the forces of the weather. A hurricane that puts a number of oil rigs out of action affects the availability of oil, the economies and the price of petrol around the world.

We have seen the consequences in every country. In light of the oil supply disruptions, the Swedish Government recently decided to allow withdrawals from the country’s emergency stocks of petroleum products. The whole world is now dreading the problems brought about by dependence on oil. In a situation where President Bush speaks to the nation about using cars less - and where Ford and Toyota demand that the President takes steps to reduce dependence on oil - each and every one of us can see how the devastation created by the hurricanes rapidly changes the attitude towards fuel. It is as though the idea that oil is a finite resource is only now seriously having an impact on the debate. But there is reason to believe that this awareness will also remain on the agenda in the slightly longer term. (more…)