Thu 13 Jul 2006
Posted by Dan Welch under
Peakist ,
Peak Oil
Transition Culture reports on Al Gore responding to questions on peak oil at a recent talk at the Centre for Human Ecology in Edinburgh:
Do you see the impending peaking in world oil production as a crisis or an opportunity?
There’s an old cliche about the way the Chinese write the word “crisis.” They have two symbols back to back. The first means danger, and the second means opportunity. And we sometimes emphasize the danger in a crisis without focusing on the opportunities that are there. We should feel a great sense of urgency about the impending peak oil scenario because it is with climate change the most dangerous crisis we have ever faced, by far. But it also provides us with opportunities to do a lot of things we ought to be doing for other reasons anyway. And to solve this crisis we can develop a shared sense of moral purpose. Peak oil is not a political issue its a moral issue which needs global cooperation and strong leadership.
Do you see it as a problem that Governments are able to respond to, or will the response by necessity emerge from the local level?
Both need to respond however when individuals make a commitment to become part of the solution instead of the problem typically they become much more active and vocal as citizens stressing the need for new policies and in the dance of democracy individual and local community commitment does often lead to big policy changes and I think we are on that road now.
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July 13th, 2006 at 3:17 am
Imagine a world where Gore had become President…
July 13th, 2006 at 3:24 am
ahhhhhhhhhhhhhhh … he invented the internet you know
July 13th, 2006 at 3:54 am
World production of oil has peaked according to Dr Ali Samsam Bakhtiari, a former executive of the National Iranian Oil Company. He predicts a fall of 32% by 2020 as wells dry up and new discoveries become rarer, smaller and harder to extract…
Dr Bakhtiari said he could not predict how high the price of crude oil would have to go in order for demand to fall. However, reaching a high of $75.78 a barrel in New York on July 7, the threefold increase in crude prices within the last four years has apparently done little to effect the worlds thirst for oil. Global demand has been rising at around 2% per year.
There are just five years left to try to plan priorities for the use of crude oil according to Bakhiari, “The problem will become the day that you cannot optimise by price, you will have to optimise by availability, so there won’t be oil for everyone.”, he said
He is also predicting that the world’s natural gas production will probably peak around 2008 or 2009 and claims that the price may increase 800% compared to todays gas prices.
Dr Bakhiari is on a visit to Australia organised by the Association for the Study of Peak Oil (ASPO). During his visit he will give evidence to an Australian Senate inquiry into the future of the countries oil supplies.
http://www.indymedia.org.uk/en/2006/07/344791.html
July 13th, 2006 at 3:59 am
Simmons reckons $182 barrel to control demand. Richard Douthwaite made the point somewhere that when central banks attempt to compensate for rises in the price of oil by raising interest rates all they succeed in doing to messing up the signal from the market that fossill fuel heavy entreprise is becoming relatively inefficinet - he says let the market function properly so we can see the real effect of price rises.
BTW the Simmons figure is from an investment newsletter - WallStreetWindow
Peak oil creates Investment Opportunity
“Many commodity experts believe that high oil prices are here to stay. They believe that world oil production has peaked, causing the supply of oil to no longer keep up with demand. The Association for the Study of Peak Oil, created by a group of oil executives, geologists, investment bankers, and academics, has been warning the world of high oil prices for the past several years.
It includes people like People like Ali Bakhtiari, head of strategic planning at Iran’s National Oil Company (NOIC), Dr Colin Campbell, a former executive vice president of Total-Fina, and Matthew Simmons, an energy investment banker and adviser to the controversial Bush-Cheney energy plan.
“Oil is far too cheap at the moment,” says Mr Simmons. “The figure I’d use is around $182 a barrel. We need to price oil realistically to control its demand. That is because global production is peaking. If we price oil correctly,” Mr Simmons says, “it could give us time to find bridge fuels, fuels to fill the gap between an oil economy and a renewable economy. But I don’t see that happening.”
The adherents of the peak oil theory warn the decline of world oil output will force oil prices higher for good, and that the knock on effects could be catastrophic. “In my opinion, unfortunately, there will be no linear change,” says Iran’s Ali Bakhtiari. “There will only be sudden explosive change.”
July 13th, 2006 at 6:27 am
How to make money out of peak oil
http://brentwilliamson.com/oil/?gclid=CN_BwoXtjoYCFS1MEgodzicHNw