The Peakist

by Richard Heinberg

The problems of Climate Change and Peak Oil both result from societal dependence on fossil fuels. But just how the impacts of these two problems relate to one another, and how policies to address them should differ or overlap, are questions that have so far not been adequately discussed. (more…)

For every calorie of food produced by agriculture, 10 calories of fossil fuel is burned. And today Bush announces the intention to cut US petroleum consumption by 20% in ten years - mainly through substituting corn-derived ethanol. The corn required to fill an SUV tank with bioethanol just once could feed one person for an entire year. Lester Brown has described the boom in bioethanol as a competition between the 800 million people in the world who own cars with the 3 billion people who struggle to feed themselves on less than $2 a day. This year’s Soil Association conference is on the theme of “Preparing for a post-peak oil food and farming future,” with keynote speakers from the peak oil fraternity, Colin Campbell, Richard Heinberg, Jeremy Leggett and Rob Hopkins. Jonathon Porritt, no less, (another speaker) had an piece in the Guardian today bylined “Declining oil reserves will impact hugely on energy prices and the way we eat and farm.” He points out that the idea that the UK might be forced back on predominantly its own productive resources is dismissed as “retro-protectionist rambling.” I predict the term “deglobalisation” will mainstream in the not too distant future. Let’s hope this comes about through reasoned response to the unfolding crisis rather than in shocked post-hoc analyses following a successful attack of the Saudi Abqaiq facility or a tanker in the Straits of Malacca. Jonathon Porritt’s article… (more…)

Falling fuel costs probably not a coincidence, oil traders say

NBC News reports: Oil traders and others believe that the Saudi decision to let the price of oil tumble has more to do with Iran than economics. Their belief has been reinforced in recent days as the Saudi oil minister has steadfastly refused calls for a special meeting of OPEC and announced that the nation is going to increase its production, which will send the price down even farther. Saudi Oil Minister Ibrahim al-Naimi even said during a recent trip to India that oil prices are headed in the “right direction.” Not for the Iranians. Moreover, the traders believe the Saudis are not doing this alone, that the other Sunni-dominated oil producing countries and the U.S. are working together, believing it will hurt majority-Shiite Iran economically and create a domestic crisis for Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad, whose popularity at home is on the wane. The traders also believe (with good reason) that the U.S. is trying to tighten the screws on Iran financially at the same time the Saudis are reducing the Islamic Republic’s oil revenues. (more…)

Oil Drum USA reports: “With little media fanfare as of yet, a major report by the political heavyweight think tank Council on Foreign Relations was recently released. “Independent Task Force Report #58 - National Security Consequences of Oil Dependency” (pdf warning) paints a somewhat more urgent picture of our energy situation than most other oil and energy research coming out of Washington. Though there is no mention of the words “Peak Oil’ in the 90 page report, to the astute reader it is clear that this group of experts, led by ex-CIA chiefs, John Deutsch and James Schlesinger, understand that the era of cheap energy is ending, and that our dependency on oil has major geopolitical implications with few easy answers. The bombshell in this report is the admission that the United States will be unable to achieve energy independence, and should focus instead on reducing our dependency on oil. Though this concept is nothing new to readers of this site, coming from a highly respected mainstream think tank (CFR), recommendations such as conservation, gasoline taxes, and gasoline rationing might be an uncomfortable but necessary wake up call to some of the conservative (cornucopian?) decisionmakers in our nations capital. Indeed, this report may be the next integral step of political eye-opening (the first being the Hirsch Report last year) that hastens our national efforts towards addressing our energy addiction.” Oil Drum review of the report.

Chris Skrebowski, Board Trustee of the Oil Depletion Analysis Centre, has issued an open letter to Peter Jackson of Cambridge Energy Research Associates (CERA), in response to CERA’s recent report “‘Why the “Peak Oil” Theory Falls Down – Myths, Legends, and the Future of Oil Resources.” CERA, self-appointed gatekeepers to world reserves data (data which CERa provides at a very high price), are well known for denying imminent peak oil. Skrebowski’s letter is highly technical - but his principal point is that whilst in public CERA claim there is no oil supply problem to senior executives and policy makers CERA’s data provides a very different story: “Could it be that the real objection to the increasing publicity given to Peak Oil is that the senior executives and policy makers are losing control of the secret?” He then goes on to demonstrate using CERA’s own figures that crisis imminent. (more…)

Chris Floyd, t r u t h o u t UK Correspondent writes: “The reason that George W. Bush insists that “victory” is achievable in Iraq is not that he is deluded or isolated or ignorant or detached from reality or ill-advised. No, it’s that his definition of “victory” is different from those bruited about in his own rhetoric and in the ever-earnest disquisitions of the chattering classes in print and online. For Bush, victory is indeed at hand. It could come at any moment now, could already have been achieved by the time you read this. And the driving force behind his planned “surge” of American troops is the need to preserve those fruits of victory that are now ripening in his hand. At any time within the next few days, the Iraqi Council of Ministers is expected to approve a new “hydrocarbon law” essentially drawn up by the Bush administration and its UK lackey, the Independent on Sunday reported. (more…)

The European commission today unveils an energy blueprint that calls for deep cuts in greenhouse gas emissions, more use of renewable sources and increased competition.
Commissioners are expected to endorse a plan that calls for all developed countries to cut 1990-level emissions by 30% by 2020. At the same time, the commission is set to propose that the EU set a target to cut its own emissions by 20% during the same period, with the possibility of increasing that target if the international community agrees to a broader cut. Environmentalists criticised the commission for setting an internal target below the one it seeks for the world as a whole. “We think that this is a political and scientific blunder,” said Mahi Sideridou, the climate policy director at Greenpeace in Brussels.  Source

In the 2006 budget the UK Government introduced the Renewable Transport Fuels Obligation (RTFO)- a requirement on transport fuel suppliers to ensure that, by 2010 5% of all road vehicle fuel is supplied from renewable sources, bringing the UK roughly in line with the 2003 EU biofuels directive. In the US, with federal subsidies for bioethanol production, and in the EU with targets to be met, biofuels are big business. A recent study by the Worldwatch Institute concluded that, for Europe to provide for 5% of its transport fuel needs, a wholly unrealistic 36% of its agricultural land would have to be dedicated to biofuels. While currently British Sugar supplies much of the feedstock for UK biofuels, most of it blended with supermarket forecourt petrol, there is no way to meet the modest 2010 biofuel target utilising crops from European land. Instead the targets will be met with imports of biodeisel and ethanol - both of which currently present huge enviornmental problems and to greater or lesser extent displace the CO2 emissions that are the raison d’etre of the RTFO from European tailpipes to the US grain belt and Indonesian palm oil plantations.

Sasha Lilley reports for CorpWatch on the reality of the “green fuel” ethanol:

“The town of Columbus, Nebraska, bills itself as a “City of Power and Progress.” If Archer Daniels Midland gets its way, that power will be partially generated by coal, one of the dirtiest forms of energy. When burned, it emits carcinogenic pollutants and high levels of the greenhouse gases linked to global warming. Ironically this coal will be used to generate ethanol, a plant-based petroleum substitute that has been hyped by both environmentalists and President George Bush as the green fuel of the future. (more…)

By the end of today, the average British person will be responsible for the same amount of carbon emissions as the average person in the world’s poorest countries will produce all year. The startling statement is revealed today in a report by the World Development Movement (WDM), which says that while the least developed countries do not contribute to global warming, the millions who live there are most vulnerable to the consequences of climate change. Eight days into the new year, the average UK citizen will be responsible for the production of 0.21 tonnes of carbon dioxide - the same amount as the annual tally for a person in countries such as Zambia. (more…)

A bitter energy dispute jeopardised oil supplies to western Europe today as Belarus struck out at neighbouring Russia by cutting off a vital transit pipeline crossing Belarusssian territory. The closure of the 2,500-mile Druzhba pipeline (druzhba means “friendship” in Belarussian), one of Europe’s biggest, meant no Russian oil was being pumped along it to Germany, Poland or Ukraine. (more…)

To prevent massive pollution and slow its growing contribution to global warming, China will need to make advanced coal technology work on an unprecedented scale.
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By Yuras Karmanau in Belarus Published: 04 January 2007 - The IndependantAlexander Lukashenko, the Belarusian President, hit out at Russian leaders yesterday over gas price increases, calling the move “shameless” and threatening to charge Moscow for military facilities and oil transit across his country.

The remarks from an agitated Mr Lukashenko came days after his government averted a New Year’s Day cut-off of Russian natural-gas supplies by grudgingly agreeing to pay twice the previous price this year and more in the future.

The gas dispute was part of a struggle over Russia’s moves to end years of preferential treatment that have helped Mr Lukashenko keep his country’s Soviet-style economy running and maintain his grip on power.

Belarus has stopped importing Russian oil as it seeks to persuade Moscow to reconsider a new customs duty on exports to its former Soviet neighbour, saying the additional charge makes oil too expensive and could badly damage the economy.

Source